Pollster Helmut Norpoth was one of a very small number of people who correctly predicted Donald Trump's shock election win back in 2016 – and four years later his data modelling predicts the Don is an almost sure thing to hold on to the presidency.

A professor of political science at New York's prestigious Stony Brook University, Norpoth created his prediction model in 1996 by analysing data from every US election going back to 1912.

And despite what mainstream polls across America are saying in the run up to polling day on November 3, Norpoth puts Trump's chances of success at a whopping 91%.

The model is based around each candidate's performance in their party's Primary Elections, or Primaries, where Democrats and Republicans voted for who their party's presidential candidate should be.

President Trump is behind in the majority of mainstream polls

By comparing Donald Trump and Joe Biden's performances in the Primaries to those over the last 108 years, Norpoth argues you can accurately make predictions for how the overall vote will play out in the actual election.

Unsurprisingly, the Republican primary saw sitting president Trump romp to victory, earning 94% of his party's popular vote, with his worst performance coming in the state of Connecticut – and even there he posted a vote share of 78%.

Joe Biden, in contrast was a much more close run thing, taking just 52% of the Democrats popular vote.

He was run close by popular left-wing politician Bernie Sanders and other prominent Democrat figures such as Elizabeth Warren and media magnate Michael Bloomberg.

The US president has been on a publicity blitz in the run up to the election on Tuesday

Norpoth's model has been right for every winner of the popular vote since 1996.

However, a second and also well respected pollster by the name of Alan Lichtman, who uses a very different method to predict election results, has Joe Biden as the clear winner.

Lichtman's model uses the same methodology that predicts earthquakes to weigh up how Americans will vote.

But another well-regarded poll puts challenger Joe Biden on course for the White House

By using 13 true or false statements about the incumbent president, Lichtman argues he can work out if the challenger is more or less likely to kick the sitting president – in this case Trump – out of the White House.

And Lichtman says that, in 2020, seven of his 13 statements are answered "false", putting Democrat Joe Biden in line for a new desk in the Oval Office.

Throughout this week, the Daily Star Online will be bringing you all the big news, and some of the quirkiest, from 2020's US election. You can read more of our coverage here.